High-Risk Decision-Making

Why it is a critical motorcycling skill

Despite my riding experience, I almost got caught. I was riding in farm country. If this is something you do regularly, you know that farmers consider the roads their own. In a way, they are. I wasn’t speeding much, and I did see the tractor waiting to come out onto the highway. It waited while I approached. What I didn’t expect was for it to come out at the last second. It was almost as if he had waited until he knew I wouldn’t be able to stop. In my heart, I knew that wasn’t the case. He was distracted or just didn’t see me. That said, there was no time to stop. I threw on my flashers, looked at the driver of the oncoming car, and signalled with my left arm that I was coming out. He obliged by moving over. I flew between the tractor and the oncoming car, giving the driver a thumbs-up in the process. Quick thinking and calm under pressure kept me safe. The alertness of the driver of the oncoming vehicle helped. That’s one cager I want to thank.

High-Risk Decision-Making for Motorcyclists

Motorcycling is inherently a high-risk activity, and making the right decisions in high-risk situations is key to staying safe on the road.

When faced with an emergency, motorcyclists face unique challenges: limited time, uncertainty, and ever-changing dynamics. Under pressure, you must make swift, effective decisions. This means responding quickly based on training, practice, established rules, and past experiences. Experience helps predict how situations might unfold, while training and practice ensure you take the right actions with confidence.

Problems crop up when riders don’t put in the time or effort to stay sharp. It’s not just about years of experience; it’s about frequent riding and ongoing training. Motorcycle skills, including the ability to make quick, correct decisions under pressure, can fade if not regularly practised. I see it all the time in my side gig as a service manager at a boutique motorcycle shop. Customers often tell me they only ride one or two thousand kilometres a year. Honestly, that’s not enough to stay sharp.

But hey, this is just my opinion. Take from it what you will or toss it aside. My goal is to spark conversation and get people thinking about safety. Whether you agree with me or not, I hope it makes you consider how to stay safer on the road.

Learning and Riding

Teaching someone to sail to England can be done in an afternoon. With good weather and a little bit of sailing knowledge, you might make it to England without ever realizing what you don’t know. The same goes for motorcycling. If nothing happens, you could ride for years without a hitch, oblivious to the gaps in your skills and knowledge. But when reality throws a high-risk situation your way—and it eventually will—you’ll quickly find out what you’re missing.

Making high-risk decisions and having the mental fortitude to do so under extreme pressure isn’t just for new and returning riders. It’s essential for all riders. There’s a reason police motor officers get regular training and skill testing. And let’s be honest, they probably ride a lot more than most of us.

New riders, especially those with little or no driving experience, are at the greatest risk. They lack an understanding of basic traffic dynamics, driver psychology, and the experience to predict other drivers’ behaviour. Expecting drivers to see you or act rationally can be a fatal mistake. Drivers will pass you in the passing lane on the highway and then immediately change lanes right into you, forgetting you were there just a moment before. An experienced rider expects this and is ready for it.

But let’s focus on the predicaments motorcyclists put themselves in. For example, an experienced rider will cautiously ride past a stopped lane of traffic. They know that there may be something going on that they can’t see. For example, a vehicle might be waved through to turn left into a side street. Many inexperienced riders rush past and end up hitting—or almost hitting—the turning vehicle. Technically, the turning vehicle is at fault, but due to the lack of experience and judgment of the new motorcycle rider, they’ve really done it to themselves.

Skills for High-Risk Environments

Situational Awareness: This isn’t just about seeing but about anticipating, evaluating, processing, and understanding the complexities of an unfolding situation. A study by the University of Southern Australia found that “firefighters with high situational awareness are 30% less likely to suffer injuries on the job.” This highlights the importance of training riders to think beyond the immediate task and develop a continual awareness of their environment.

Risk Assessment: Riding involves continuous risk assessment—analyzing every factor, identifying potential hazards, and assessing their likelihood and severity. Everything must be anticipated, noticed, examined, calculated, and monitored, with the rider prepared to change course as the situation evolves.

Awareness, Time, Space, Readiness

There are four critical factors that can prevent a riding catastrophe: awareness of hazards, time to locate an escape route, space to stop or take evasive action, and readiness to take further action. These four elements can save your life. When you are prepared, time seems to slow down, giving you a sense of control. You can recognize danger, identify an escape route, see additional hazards, and take further evasive action. Most importantly, it helps you stay calm and cool under fire. Panic is antithetical to a safe outcome.

But how do awareness, time, space, and readiness translate into practical riding strategies? Not surprisingly, three strategies taught in a basic rider’s education course do the trick:

The Twelve-Second Rule: Looking twelve seconds ahead rather than focusing on the car in front of you leads to better preparedness. This rule gives you the maximum time to identify a hazard and take pre-emptive action.

The Two-Second Rule: Keeping two seconds of space behind the vehicle in front of you gives enough space to stop, check for additional hazards, and locate an escape route.

Emergency Stopping and Brake and Evade Practice: Being well-practised means you will have the riding skills you need to stop or evade the hazard in the fastest time and shortest distance while gearing down, allowing you to take further action if additional hazards arise.

These simple strategies, if employed consistently, give riders the edge needed when something unexpected happens.

In Motorcycle Roadcraft: The Police Rider’s Handbook from the UK, they look at it a slightly different way to get the same results. (That said, their riders get a lot of ongoing riding instruction and practice.) The book introduces a system of motorcycle control that includes five key elements. The first is information gathering. This is a continual process that never stops. During any step, you may have to change your course of action as a result of new information. Based on the information, you position your bike, change speed using brakes, engine braking, or throttle, switch gears as needed, and safely accelerate away, all geared to help the rider deal with the hazard in the most effective way.

By continually scanning for threats, you are ready. Being ready gives you the mental fortitude to remain calm under pressure so you can make critical decisions in new and challenging situations.

Most hazards a motorcyclist will come across can be expected. But, not always. To give ourselves the best chance to deal with new situations, we need time and space. A combination of the twelve-second rule, the two-second rule, regular practice, and the system of motorcycle control advocated by the police rider’s handbook will help to make sure that we have the best chance possible to deal with any hazard. These strategies, combined with situational awareness and ongoing risk assessment, form the foundation of high-risk decision-making for motorcyclists.

Motorcyclists must be prepared for unexpected events, such as sudden stops in traffic or erratic behaviour from other drivers. By employing the strategies discussed and maintaining a high level of situational awareness, riders can navigate these challenges safely.

Ride safe and be seen. Hope to see you out on the road sometime soon.

– John Lewis